Thursday 26 October 2017

Catalunya latest

I was at Girona Grapevine yesterday, the group that I run in the cafetería in Hotel Carlemany, and spoke to two friends who both want independence. One is Scottish, Laura, but she has lived here for very many years (she was married to a Catalan), the other Montse, is Catalan through and through! Montse was livid about the "lies" being told by Madrid, likewise Laura. I insisted that all of that would be water under the bridge in an independent Catalunya. I said that the only thing we should be thinking about was the viability of an independent Catalunya, everything else was a distraction. A Spanish equivalent to The Economist had a headline a few days ago, "It's the economy, stupid!" (borrowed from James Carville, Bill Clinton's campaign manager).
I said, "What about all the companies moving their head offices from Catalunya?"
Laura replied, "Don't worry, they will still have offices in Catalunya", as if to say, "it's nothing".
"But," I replied, "They must have a reason for their doing that. They will pay corporation tax to Spain and will remain in the EU". I cited the example of Amazon. It has offices all over the place but it pays taxes in Luxembourg. (That is under discussion, of course!)
  
I asked about where the money was going to come from. I explained that my income tax for 2017 will automatically go to Spain in June 2018 because I am resident in Spain for more than 6 months in 2017. Likewise everyone else. So an independent Catalunya will not receive any income tax revenue until June 2019.

Montse said, "Don't worry, everything will be fine. My husband will explain it all to you".

I reminded them that the Republic of Catalunya would be outside the EU, "How would it trade with the rest of the world?"

Montse replied, "Ah but not for long" She quoted the case of Montenegro. But I replied that Madrid would block re-entry into the EU as it would require the agreement of all member states. 

Borders? Air Force, Army, Navy?

"We don't want borders," said Montse. "The Spanish Navy does nothing, they are sleeping."

"What about the huge debt that Catalunya owes to Madrid?"
Montse replied that it could be negotiated. Try telling that to Madrid!

These are two women who I have known and liked for a long time (I have changed their names). We moved on to other subjects, our good relations unaffected by our difference of opinion. What concerns me is their seething anger with Madrid. OK, I sympathise with them but it is not a criterion for deciding on independence. It is the economy, stupid. Is an independent Catalunya financially viable? I think clearly that it is not. And that it will sink slowly into the sparkling blue Mediterranean. With me on board? No, I will have jumped ship long before. To Valencia or even Colombia. Where I can speak Spanish without the lurking suspicion that, really, I should be speaking Catalan also.
I did think about moving to France, Perpignan for example is very close, but it doesn't attract me at all. France is expensive, I would have to learn a new tax system, change my residency (I would have to do that in Colombia, of course but I am fluent in Spanish, albeit with an English accent! French, not so much!) My flat here would be difficult to sell at a price close to what I paid for it. I paid around €175k 5 years ago which was a fair price but my estate agent friend, Emy, who sold it to me says that there are now plenty of other similar properties in Celrà for €150k. So my only option is to rent it out (3 year period). For that I can receive €600 per month and she told me that the tax on that income would not be very great. That was a preoccupation of mine. If Catalunya really went independent, I dread to imagine what would happen to the price. At the moment, the political situation is not affecting the price. I actually made an appointment to see Emy in her office before the Girona Grapevine meeting.

It was funny because I saw her again in my local bar in the evening because she lives in Celrà. "Mucho tiempo!" she said. I asked her how the agency was doing and she burst out laughing. She explained that two other people had just asked her the same question (she only works there, she is not a partner). So we talked about cooking because I was on the point of going back home to cook my supper. She said that she hated cooking and eating was boring. I said that I thought it was better than sex, which she found very funny. We laugh a lot!


While I was in Ukraine, I read the news with alarm. But back home, the sun still rises every day, the bar still serves my favourite beer. 

In the next few days we will know a lot more about the politics. Today even!

Stop Press! 26th October at 1pm. Carles Puigdemont is dissolving Parliament and is calling new elections. I am not quite sure how that will work. If he gets a larger majority, he will be back in the same place. If the moderate parties manage to get a majority and CUP lose their grip on power, then there will be talks with Madrid. That has always been on offer and I would be very glad to see it. Anything but independence because I think people are gradually waking up to the fact that it would be a disaster of major proportions. A walk down a very dark path. Here is a link to a page in the BBC website which analyses what would happen to an independent Catalunya. Scares me. I think it scares Carles Puigdemont also, the difference being that I can say it; he dare not.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41474674


9pm.   The declaration was cancelled and now Catalunya has descended into chaos with a long and tedious debate in Parliament.


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